GREENVILLE, N.C. — Democrat Roy Cooper holds a 54% to 45% edge over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race, the final ECU Poll before Tuesday’s election shows.
Pollsters at the university’s Center for Survey Research reached 1,041 registered voters who had already voted or were likely to vote, from Oct. 26 through Oct. 29. The center reports a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, comparable to a standard margin of error. Another 1% chose someone outside the two major parties.
The nine-point gap is up slightly from the seven-point lead Cooper held in the center’s September report. Center director Peter Francia said in the release that Whatley has been unable to narrow the race and that Cooper looks likely to win.
Independents are a big part of the margin, favoring Cooper 56% to 42%. Voters also view the former governor more kindly, 52% favorable to 39% unfavorable, while Whatley sits at 34% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
Pocketbook worries top the list. Nearly half of respondents, 47%, called it their top issue, and Cooper wins that group 67% to 33%. Border security and immigration came next at 12%, followed by Iran and other foreign policy at 10%. Health care costs and crime each drew 7%.
The demographic splits are sharp. Cooper leads among women 59% to 41% and among college graduates 62% to 37%, while Whatley edges ahead among men, 50% to 48%, voters without a four-year degree, 51% to 49%, and voters 65 and older, 52% to 48%. Statewide, 54% of respondents disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance and 42% approve.
The seat is open because Thom Tillis is leaving the Senate. Cooper served as governor from 2017 to 2025, and Whatley chaired the Republican National Committee from 2024 to 2025. Polling places statewide open at 6:30 a.m. Tuesday, and voting ends at 7:30 p.m. Both candidates are also on a ballot that carries three proposed state constitutional amendments.
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