RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina voters who belong to neither major party are showing up early this fall in numbers that outpace the last midterm, and a final statewide poll released Tuesday shows Democrat Roy Cooper still holding a double-digit edge in the U.S. Senate race.
Early voting opened Thursday, and by Monday night roughly one in three ballots, 34%, had come from unaffiliated voters. Four years ago their share at the same point was 29%.
The raw count grew even faster. A tally kept by Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer shows unaffiliated early ballots climbing from 133,683 at this point four years ago to 251,891 now, an increase of about 88%.
Part of the jump reflects a changing electorate. Unaffiliated voters now make up roughly 40% of registered voters in North Carolina, with Democrats and Republicans near 30% each. In 2022 the three groups were split close to evenly.
Close to 670,000 North Carolinians had voted in person by the end of Monday. Democrats have cast nearly 45% of those ballots, unaffiliated voters about 34% and Republicans close to 21%, a GOP share slightly under its 2022 pace. Republicans have historically closed that kind of gap on Election Day, though in 2008 the Democratic early-vote lead held and Barack Obama carried the state by half a percentage point.
The shift is showing up in closely watched legislative contests. In House District 37 in Wake County and House District 105 in Mecklenburg County, both considered tight races, unaffiliated voters have so far cast more ballots than either Democrats or Republicans.
Elon University’s final pre-election survey found Cooper, the former governor, leading Republican Michael Whatley 52% to 39% among likely voters, with 6% undecided and 3% backing a third-party candidate or someone else. When undecided voters were pushed to pick, the margin narrowed to 54% to 43%.
Independents in the poll favored Cooper 50% to 24%, and 17% of them had not yet decided. Among all registered voters, excitement about casting a ballot ran highest among Democrats at 65%, compared with 55% of Republicans.
Poll director Jason Husser said in a statement that Cooper is leaning on moderates, true independents and women, while noting signs that the race could tighten if Republicans turn out more of their base. The survey of 800 adults ran Sept. 29 through Oct. 8, and the general election is Nov. 3.
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